Introduction
Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) is a leading global financial services company founded and based in Switzerland. The company operates in three core divisions: Swiss Universal Bank, International Wealth Management, and Asia Pacific. Credit Suisse provides expert investment banking, private banking, and asset management services worldwide.
Investors seeking exposure to the Swiss financial sector frequently follow Credit Suisse stock because it is one of the biggest banks in Switzerland. However, after a challenging 2022, many investors are wondering what the outlook is for CS stock in 2024 and beyond.
This article provides a detailed forecast and analysis for Credit Suisse stock in 2024. We will analyze key financial metrics, growth prospects, market conditions, and technical factors to evaluate the investment case for CS stock this year.
Credit Suisse Stock Key Metrics and Multiples
Let’s first look at some key financial metrics and valuation multiples for Credit Suisse:
- Market Cap: CHF 14.4B
- P/E Ratio: 6.06x
- P/B Ratio: 0.27x
- P/S Ratio: 1.22x
- Revenue (TTM): CHF 28.6B
- Net Income (TTM): -CHF 3.7B
- EPS (TTM): -CHF 1.39
- ROE (TTM): -5.93%
Credit Suisse currently trades at low valuations across P/E, P/B and P/S ratios compared to historical levels. This reflects the bank’s poor profitability and losses over the past year. The market is pricing in considerable risks around CS’s restructuring efforts.
However, if the bank can successfully execute its strategic plan and return to consistent profitability, there is substantial upside given current low valuations.
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Credit Suisse Stock Growth Drivers
Credit Suisse has laid out a new strategic plan under CEO Ulrich Körner focused on five priorities:
1. Restore Profitability in Wealth Management
Wealth management is CS’s largest and most profitable division historically. However, profits declined in 2022 due to market downturns and outflows. Restoring positive operating trends here is critical.
2. Rebuild Investment Bank Franchise
The investment bank faced major losses in 2022 from exposure to failed clients. CS aims to reshape the unit with a more focused approach targeting core clients.
3. Transform Swiss Bank into a Market Leader
As the number 2 player in its home market, CS sees an opportunity to gain share by outperforming rivals with better digital capabilities.
4. Expedite Cost Initiatives
Management is targeting CHF 1.2B in run-rate cost savings by 2025, including headcount reductions and real estate consolidation. This will help improve profit margins.
5. Strengthen Risk Management
Enhancing risk controls and compliance is also a top priority after CS’s recent risk management lapses. This should help avoid large losses going forward.
If Credit Suisse can successfully execute on these priorities over the next 12-24 months, it should be able to return to consistent profitability by 2024. This turnaround potential is a key bull case for the stock this year.
Credit Suisse Stock Price Targets
Wall Street analysts see considerable upside for CS stock in 2024 based on the bank’s turnaround plan. Here are some of the latest analyst price targets:
- UBS: CHF 7.00 (78% upside)
- RBC: CHF 6.50 (65% upside)
- Goldman Sachs: CHF 6.80 (74% upside)
- Morgan Stanley: CHF 6.60 (70% upside)
The average 12-month analyst price target for Credit Suisse stock is CHF 6.70, representing approximately 70% upside from current levels around CHF 4.00.
While these targets are based on a successful multi-year turnaround, they illustrate the substantial upside potential if management can execute over the next year.
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Technical Analysis
From a technical analysis perspective, CS stock has found support above CHF 3.50 and its 200-week moving average after sharp declines in 2021-2022. This indicates buyers are stepping in at lower levels.
If CS can break out above resistance around CHF 4.50, that would signal a technical uptrend is underway. In that scenario, the stock could challenge the CHF 6.00 – 7.00 range in 2024 where analysts’ price targets are aligned.
However, if the CHF 3.50 support level is violated, that would be a bearish technical signal pointing to downside risk. In that case, CS stock could retest the 2021 lows around CHF 2.80 before finding a new base.
Overall, the technical picture suggests Credit Suisse stock could see a bullish breakout in 2024 if the turnaround gains traction. But the charts also reflect ongoing risks reflected in the weak price action over the past two years.
Market Outlook
Broader market trends will also significantly impact the performance of Credit Suisse stock in 2024. Heading into the year, key factors for investors to watch include:
- Global growth outlook – An improving macroeconomic environment with reaccelerating growth should provide a supportive backdrop for CS’s operating performance and turnaround.
- Interest rates – Rising rates are typically positive for bank profitability. However, an aggressive hiking cycle also raises risks related to loan losses and credit costs.
- Inflation – High inflation could negatively impact consumer wealth and demand for financial services. But it may also drive trading revenue if volatility persists.
- Swiss economy – Credit Suisse has major exposure to its domestic Swiss market. Strong economic trends in Switzerland would aid domestic banking results.
- Industry trends – Developments across global banking like digitalization and fee/cost pressures will impact CS’s competitive positioning.
Taking these factors into account, the market outlook in 2024 may provide tailwinds for Credit Suisse as macro conditions improve. But execution risks specific to CS’s turnaround plan will likely be the key driver of stock performance.
Credit Suisse Stock Forecast and Price Prediction
Given the analysis outlined above, here is a potential forecast scenario for Credit Suisse stock in 2024:
- Base Case: If CS shows initial progress on cost cuts and stabilizing wealth management, the stock could trade up to CHF 5.00 – 6.00 (25-50% upside from current levels).
- Bull Case: With clear momentum on turnaround execution, CS could rally to the CHF 6.50 – 7.50 range (60-90% upside) driven by improved sentiment.
- Bear Case: If turnaround stalls due to macro or company-specific issues, CHF 3.00 – 4.00 is possible (25-50% downside).
An important upside catalyst would be consistently positive wealth management operating trends, suggesting assets and earnings have bottomed. Proving progress in cost savings will also be key.
The largest downside risk is failure to stem outflows and deliver visible profit stabilization in 2024. But broader factors like a market downturn or sharp economic slowdown would also pressure CS stock.
Overall, if Credit Suisse can deliver on restructuring initiatives in 2024, the stock has the potential to outperform the market this year based on low current valuations. But execution risks remain elevated, making the turnaround path challenging. Upside potential appears skewed toward the long term, but more progress in 2024 would boost investor confidence.
To Recap
Credit Suisse faces considerable challenges but also opportunities heading into 2024. With disciplined implementation of its strategic plan, CS stock could see a bullish breakout driven by improving sentiment around the turnaround.
However, the path remains risky, given execution uncertainties. Macroeconomic conditions and a competitive backdrop will also impact CS’s progress, translating restructuring into better financial results.
For investors willing to take on turnaround risk, Credit Suisse stock offers substantial reward potential if management executes. But maintaining a long-term perspective and a focus on risk management will be prudent given the multi-year transformation timeline.
Credit Suisse Stock Forecast FAQs
What is the current CS stock price?
The current stock price for Credit Suisse Group AG is around CHF 4.00 as of January 2024. The 52-week range has been CHF 2.89 – CHF 4.91.
Is CS stock a good buy now?
At current valuations below book value and at a deep discount to historical levels, CS stock could represent a good speculative buy for investors who see turnaround potential over the next 2-3 years. The high upside scenarios warrant consideration.
Will Credit Suisse stock go up in 2024?
Based on the bull case scenario outlined above, CS stock could see 60-90% upside in 2024 if management demonstrates execution on cost cuts and stabilization in wealth management revenues. A breakout above CHF.
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