Should You Buy TMF Stock? A Close Look at Direxion’s 3x Long Bond ETF

Introduction

With interest rates expected to peak soon, some investors are anticipating a potential rebound in bonds during 2023. In this environment, leveraged bond ETFs like the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF) have garnered attention. But TMF stock comes with substantial risks that traders should fully understand before buying.

This article analyzes the investment case for TMF stock in 2023. We’ll examine TMF’s investment strategy, benefits and risks, recent performance trends, alternatives, and outlook to determine if it’s a buy right now. While TMF offers a tool to amplify bond market upside, its complexities warrant caution.

Overview of TMF

TMF is a leveraged ETF that provides 3x daily exposure to long-term US Treasury bonds. Specifically, it seeks to deliver 300% of the daily performance of the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.

TMF pursues its leveraged objective through derivatives and other financial instruments. Due to leverage decay over time, it is intended for active trading rather than buy-and-hold investing.

With interest rates potentially peaking, some traders view TMF as a way to capitalize on a potential recovery in bonds. But TMF’s aggressive strategy has major risks to understand before investing.

Benefits and Applications of TMF

For active traders, TMF offers these potential benefits:

• Magnified exposure to capitalize on short-term upside moves in long-term bonds
• The ability to profit from bond market rebounds as rates stabilize
• Liquidity to rapidly move in and out of positions
• Can be used to hedge or amplify exposure in an overall portfolio

TMF is best suited for experienced traders looking to speculate on near-term moves in bonds. It allows for rapidly scaling exposure without needing to trade on margin. The ETF structure also provides convenience and diversification.

However, TMF is complex and requires diligent risk management. It generally should not be held long-term or without understanding how leverage can impact returns.

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Major Risks of Investing in TMF

While the potential rewards of TMF are clear, its risks are substantial:

• Leverage: The 3x leverage magnifies potential losses as well as gains. Even if bonds rise over the long run, short-term declines can wipe out TMF value due to leverage decay.
• Volatility drag: Due to daily compounding, volatility erodes TMF’s value over time. Increased bond market volatility can quickly devastate the ETF.
• Correlation deviation: TMF may not always achieve a perfect 3x correlation to the underlying index, especially over longer periods.
• Credit risk: While Treasury bonds carry minimal default risk, TMF uses derivatives like futures that introduce counterparty credit risk.
• Liquidity constraints: Trading costs and supply/demand imbalances can hamper the ETF arbitrage mechanism, causing large premiums/discounts.

TMF essentially converts long-term investing into dangerous short-term speculation. Traders should have a clear strategy for limiting risks before buying shares.

TMF Recent Performance Analysis

TMF saw extreme volatility in 2022 amid rising rates. After peaking above $160 in early 2022, the ETF crashed over 80% to below $30 by October as long-term Treasury yields surged higher.

This highlights the dangers of TMF’s leverage – small moves in the underlying index translate into massive volatility. TMF lost over half its value in 2021 as well, showing how susceptible it is to declines even in bull markets for bonds.

While TMF can see sharp temporary upswings, leverage decay makes it very difficult to profit over extended periods. Even large gains can quickly reverse course.

Alternatives to Investing in TMF

Given TMF’s risks, some alternatives for gaining bond exposure include:

• TLT – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF provides non-leveraged long-term Treasury exposure to benefit from rising bond prices.
• TMV – Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares allows shorting/hedging bond exposure.
• TLH – iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF targets intermediate-term Treasury bonds.
• AGG – iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF provides diversified investment-grade bond exposure.
• GOVT – iShares US Treasury Bond ETF focuses on shorter-duration Treasury bonds.

These ETFs provide targeted bond exposure without the complexities of leverage decay over long periods.

2023 Outlook for TMF

TMF could see additional near-term upside in early 2023 if the Fed pauses rate hikes and recessionary fears rise. Long-term Treasury yields may fall, providing a catalyst.

But structural factors like low inflation expectations and demographics point to lower bond returns over the next decade. This long-run scenario presents challenges for a leveraged product like TMF.

Ultimately, overzealous rate hikes or slower economic growth could provide periodic trading opportunities. But for buy-and-hold investors, non-leveraged bond funds likely make more sense than a product like TMF.

To Recap

With its 3x daily leverage, TMF offers a rocket ride on short-term Treasury upside. However, its inherent complexity and leverage decay make it inappropriate for most long-term investors.

Traders adept at managing risks may be able to profit from TMF by scaling in and out of positions opportunistically. But less sophisticated investors often underestimate the dangers of holding leveraged ETFs for extended periods.

While rising rate fears may be easing, structurally lower bond returns still loom ahead. TMF could provide tactical trades, but expectations should be realistic given bonds’ headwinds. Weighing risks and alternatives is crucial before buying TMF.

TMF Stock FAQs

How does TMF provide 3x leverage?

TMF utilizes derivatives like Treasury futures contracts to amplify exposure. It also rebalances its portfolio daily to maintain consistent 3x leverage on the underlying index.

What is the expense ratio for TMF?

TMF has an expense ratio of 1.07%, which is over 20 times higher than non-leveraged bond ETFs. High fees add to long-term erosion.

How often does TMF reset its leverage?

TMF resets daily to target 3x exposure to the long-term Treasury index. This constant resetting through rebalancing contributes to leverage decay over time.

What happens if TMF declines 33% in one day?

Due to its 3x leverage, TMF would lose essentially all its value if long-term Treasuries fell 33%+ intraday. This illustrates the extreme risks it carries.

Is TMF risky for long-term investing?

Yes, TMF is generally inappropriate for long-term buy-and-hold investors. Over multi-year periods, leverage decay will likely overwhelm any gains. TMF is better traded in the short-term.

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